Floridians want to reverse 6-week abortion ban but will enough vote for it?

More than half of Floridians support overturning a state abortion ban, according to a new USA TODAY/Suffolk University/WSVN-TV poll. But with 60% of voters required to approve a constitutional amendment, the race is too close to call.

Five hundred likely voters were asked if they would support Amendment 4, an initiative set to appear on November’s ballot. It would allow first- and second-trimester abortions or even later to protect the health of patients.

In May, Florida banned almost all abortions after six weeks of pregnancy. Before that law went into effect, the state had some of the least restrictive abortion laws in the Southeast, and more than 7,000 women traveled to Florida from across the region for the procedure. 

Grandmother Maria Vistoso, 55, who lives in Plantation, Florida, said she’s generally against abortions but understands there are situations when the procedure is needed.

“Sometimes things happen in our life that we don’t choose – such as incest or rape or getting sick,” she said. “God doesn’t give us anything that we can’t handle but I understand that not everybody has that kind of strength.”

Results of the USA TODAY/Suffolk/WSVN-TV poll showed 58% of respondents agree with Vistoso and said they support the amendment versus 35% who don't. Although that's just short of the 60% needed to pass the amendment, experts say they wouldn't be surprised if that gap closes by November.

With the poll's 4.4% margin of error, it's possible that as many as 62% of voters or as few as 54% support abortion rights.

Splitting the ticket

Many poll respondents who support abortion also support Republican Donald Trump's re-election effort, even though the former president appointed the Supreme Court justices who voted to overturn abortion rights at the federal level, leaving the decision up to the states.

“This tells us that there are nuances in voting preferences,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, which oversees the USA TODAY/Suffolk polls. “They’re not all one way or another way. They can be for Trump but they can also be for abortion rights.”  

Florida women – regardless of party affiliation – are driving the trend, with 64% of all women supporting the amendment compared to 51% of men, he said. Nearly 80% of both Democratic and Independent women say they favor few abortion restrictions, versus 39% of Republican women.

Black respondents were more likely to support abortion than white respondents, with those identifying as Hispanic falling in the middle.

Vistoso, a mother of two and grandmother of seven, plans to vote for Trump in November. The Republican party’s stance on immigration and plan for the economy – two of her biggest concerns – align closely with her beliefs.

“I’m voting for Trump because when (he) was in office, gas was $1.95 a gallon and eggs were two bucks,” said Vistoso, who immigrated to the United States from Costa Rica. “Now, I grocery shop for two days for $80. My son is struggling to pay his bills, he doesn’t have money for groceries.”

Ballot measures:Voters will get to weigh in on abortion come November — in red and blue states alike

One in five has had an abortion

The USA TODAY/Suffolk poll falls in line with other data showing women’s views on abortion aren't cut by party lines.

A KFF poll also released Wednesday found one in five women of reproductive age in Florida say they have had an abortion, including 20% of Republican women and 19% of Democratic women.

Sixty percent of women of reproductive age in Florida are concerned that they or someone close to them would not be able to get an abortion if it was needed to preserve their life or health.

The trend is not exclusive to Florida. In Arizona, where residents will also be voting on abortion in November, the poll found nearly 65% of women were very or somewhat concerned that a ban might affect the safety of a potential future pregnancy for them or someone close to them. The state currently bans abortion after 15 weeks but the new ballot measure, called Proposition 139, would allow abortions up to 24 weeks.

Nationally, the KFF poll found that 74% of respondents oppose leaving abortion policy up to individual states, including just over half of Republicans, 86% of Democrats and 73% of independents.

Limited spillover effect

Florida voters may support an abortion amendment, but polling experts say the ballot initiative has little impact on how they’ll vote for a presidential candidate. The USA TODAY poll shows that 35% of Trump voters supported Amendment 4.

Abortion is a “gut level issue” where voters are more likely to split their ticket, said David Macdonald, assistant professor of political science at the University of Florida.

Although Democratic nominee Kamala Harris' support is climbing in Florida, according to the same USA TODAY/Suffolk poll, Macdonald doesn't see that affecting the abortion vote.

“In terms of Florida’s trends, the biggest thing is we don’t know where the state is going in the near future," he said. “It’s a big, weird, diverse state and the ballot initiative is one thing that makes it stand out.”

Contributing: Todd A. Price and Maya Marchel Hoff, USA TODAY NETWORK.

Adrianna Rodriguez can be reached at adrodriguez@usatoday.com.