Tropical Storm Ernesto: Track where the storm is heading in the latest models

Tropical Storm Ernesto formed Monday as it moved toward the Caribbean islands and the forecast suggest Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands could experience tropical storm conditions beginning Tuesday.

You can track the storm's path with the latest maps and models below and follow along with USA TODAY's coverage of Tropical Storm Ernesto as the fifth named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season moves through the Caribbean.

The storm is expected to bring heavy rain and cause flash floods and mudslides but the mainland U.S. could be largely spared from the storm, according to forecasts.

Where is Ernesto heading?

The National Hurricane Center's 11 p.m. ET update Monday indicated that Ernesto could bring tropical storm conditions to parts of the Leeward Islands by early Tuesday, and the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later in the day.

A tropical storm warning was issued in the area late Monday evening.

Tropical storm Ernesto path tracker

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Tropical Storm Ernesto Spaghetti Models

Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest-performing models to help make its forecasts.