Tropical Storm Ernesto forms, churns across waters toward Caribbean islands

Editor's Note: This page is a summary of news on Tropical Storm Ernesto for Monday, Aug. 12. For the latest news on Ernesto as it moves across the Caribbean, view USA TODAY's story on the storm for Tuesday, Aug. 13.

Meet Ernesto, the fifth named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

The season's latest tropical storm formed Monday as it churned across open waters toward the Caribbean islands, where it's expected to bring heavy rain and cause flash floods and possible mudslides before lashing the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Forecasters anticipate the mainland U.S. will largely be spared from the storm, a welcomed relief as residents across the eastern U.S. recover from former hurricane and tropical storm Debby.

But officials warn of dangerous surf and rip current conditions across the Atlantic coast late this week and into the weekend — a hazard tied to eight deaths from Hurricane Idalia last year.

Ernesto was located 165 miles east-southeast of Antigua, one of the major Leeward Islands, and 460 miles east-southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico, according to an 11 p.m. AST update from the National Hurricane Center. With sustained winds of 40 mph, Ernesto was moving west at 25 mph.

Current forecasts have Ernesto intensifying into at least a Category 1 hurricane by Thursday morning as it's being fueled by warm ocean waters, which experts cite as a central factor raising the likelihood of an above-average hurricane season this year.

"Ocean temperatures across the Atlantic basin as a whole remain near-record levels," said AccuWeather meteorologist Alex DaSilva. AccuWeather forecasters say Ernesto has the potential to develop into a major hurricane with sustained winds of at least 111 mph as it pushes north past Puerto Rico later in the week.

Storm tracker:NHC tracking tropical disturbance that is expected to become Tropical Storm Ernesto

What are the potential impacts of Ernesto?

Ernesto is expected to drench the Leeward Islands with 4 to 6 inches of rain, which could cause major flooding and mudslides. The storm is then projected to dump 3 to 6 inches across parts of Puerto Rico, with maximum amounts of rainfall possibly reaching as much as 10 inches, the hurricane center said.

"There is a considerable threat of flash flooding and mudslides across many of these islands," National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan said in a livestream Monday.

In the latest forecast track, Ernesto is expected to move across parts of the Leeward Islands early Tuesday before approaching the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday evening. Then, the disturbance is forecast to move away from Puerto Rico over the western Atlantic midweek.

By Thursday, it could become a hurricane as it shifts east and pushes north into the Atlantic Ocean. The storm is expected to reach the vicinity of Bermuda by early Saturday as a "powerful hurricane," Brennan said.

Brennan said Ernesto is likely to produce dangerous surf and rip current conditions along the eastern U.S. coast beginning Friday and continuing into the weekend.

Such conditions could be deadly. In 2008, officials linked the deaths of at least three people along the New Jersey coast to Hurricane Bertha, which stayed more than 1,000 miles offshore. In 2009, all deaths in the U.S. attributed to hurricanes and tropical storms were the result of large waves or strong rip currents. And last year, all eight deaths directly linked to Hurricane Idalia resulted from rough surf and rip currents.

Ernesto emerges during above-average hurricane season

Ernesto is the latest named storm in what experts predict will be a very active hurricane season.

Last week, scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said the chance of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season increased to 90%. The updated seasonal outlook from NOAA predicts 17 to 24 named storms to form, of which eight to 13 will spin up into hurricanes.

Those numbers include the four storms that have already formed this year, including deadly and devastating Hurricane Beryl – the earliest Category 5 Atlantic hurricane on record – as well as Debby, which inundated a vast swath of the Eastern Seaboard with torrential rain and led to the deaths of at least eight people.

Where is Ernesto?

Contributing: Claire Thornton, Dinah Voyles Pulver, and Jorge L. Ortiz USA TODAY; Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY Network − Florida