Michigan poll: Trump's edge takes notable leap in battleground state
Todd SpanglerEditor's note: This story has been updated to reflect that Biden has since abandoned his reelection bid. Check Freep.com for the latest.
An exclusive new Free Press poll of likely Michigan voters that showed former President Donald Trump with a notable 7-percentage-point lead over incumbent President Joe Biden in the state was released Sunday just hours before Biden, beset by questions about his age and fitness, abandoned his reelection bid.
It was not known if the poll played any role in Biden's decision to step down as the Democratic Party's nominee and endorse Vice President Kamala Harris to replace him. But without question, it added to the drumbeat of bad news for the Biden campaign in Michigan and other battleground states that had some Democrats skeptical of his chances of beating Trump and calling on him to step aside.
"It's only going to add to the pressure on Biden to step aside and have someone replace him," Bernie Porn, the pollster for EPIC-MRA in Lansing, which conducted the survey of 600 voters for the Free Press and its media partners, told the Free Press when the poll was released. "The Democrats are in a difficult position."
In a message posted on social media shortly before 2 p.m., Biden said, "I believe it is in the best interest of my party and my country for me to stand down and focus solely on fulfilling my duties as president for the remainder of my term."
The poll showed Trump, who held a rally in Grand Rapids on Saturday evening, leading Biden 49%-42% in a head-to-head matchup, with 9% undecided, saying they would vote for neither or refusing to answer. In a five-way race, Trump led with 43% to 36% for Biden, 8% for independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and 2% each for Green Party candidate Jill Stein and independent Cornel West. Again 9% said they either would not vote for president, pick someone else or were undecided.
Trump led in every region of the state, including in metro Detroit — defined as Macomb, Oakland and Wayne counties and seen as the most predominantly Democratic region in Michigan — where he held a slim but remarkable 46%-44% edge in the head-to-head matchup with Biden and a 43%-38% margin in the five-way race.
Trump's lead in metro Detroit was a significant indicator of how the political winds have changed for Biden, who four years ago, beat Trump 56%-40% in the region.
The poll, which came after a disastrous debate performance by Biden in late June when he struggled to form coherent answers and followed last Saturday's assassination attempt against Trump in Pennsylvania, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. EPIC-MRA began the survey the same day Trump was wounded in that assassination attempt at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, in which a spectator was killed and two other people were seriously injured. Secret Service shot and killed the gunman. The polling ended Wednesday, the third day of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, where Trump accepted his party's nomination for the third time.
Its result showed Trump had more than doubled his lead in Michigan, a pivotal swing state, since EPIC-MRA's last poll, done just before the June 27 presidential debate in Atlanta. In that poll, Trump led by 3 points in the head-to-head matchup.
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Porn, who has been doing polling in Michigan for decades, said he couldn't remember a survey he'd done showing a Republican presidential candidate in such a strong position in the state since then-Vice President George H.W. Bush ran successfully for president in 1988. Bush was the last Republican to win Michigan until Trump eked out a narrow win over Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in 2016 by two-tenths of a percentage point.
Biden took Michigan by about 3 percentage points over Trump four years ago on his way to winning the White House.
The new poll added to other recent ones showing growing levels of support for Trump in other swing states, including Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, further calling into question Biden's chances of winning reelection amid questions about his age — at 81, he's already the oldest president ever — and mental fitness. Tellingly, the poll found a majority of respondents, 52%, believed Biden should step aside and not run, compared with 36% who believed he should remain the Democratic nominee. Twelve percent were undecided.
More than 30 Democratic members of Congress had called for Biden to step aside as the nominee, including one from Michigan, U.S. Rep. Hillary Scholten, D-Grand Rapids.
In the poll, Democrats were split on the question of whether Biden should step aside, with 46% saying he should to 43% saying he shouldn't and 11% undecided. Independents and Republicans were more certain, with 55% of each bloc saying he should step down and 32% saying he shouldn't, with the rest undecided.
Importantly, 51% of Black voters — a key Democratic constituency — said Biden should remain the nominee compared with 39% who said he should step down.
The poll found that if Biden were to step aside, 19% believed Harris should replace him as the nominee; 17% said Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and 11% said former first lady Michelle Obama. Of five other names tested — California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, U.S. Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey and Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker — none did better than single digits. Twenty percent of respondents mentioned some other name altogether.
The poll did not test any head-to-head matchups between Trump and any other potential Democratic nominee.
Meanwhile, it did not appear that criticisms of Trump, either as a danger to democracy because of his actions in trying to overturn the result of the 2020 election or his criminal indictments and conviction on charges he falsified business records to hide payments to an adult film actress, were hurting him with voters: Fifty-three percent said his legal problems would have no bearing on their decision in November's general election.
Forty-seven percent of respondents said they feared Biden continuing as president more than they did Trump returning, compared with 43% who said they feared Trump returning more. Five percent said they feared neither more and 5% were undecided or refused to answer.
The poll also showed more voters taking a better view of Trump: 45% said they viewed him favorably, compared with 48% who viewed him unfavorably. In EPIC-MRA's last poll in June, that view was split 41% favorable, 54% unfavorable.
Biden's numbers were far worse, with just 36% viewing him favorably and 57% viewing him unfavorably.
Voters unfamiliar with Project 2025, reject EV efforts
The poll also showed that in at least one potential down ballot race, Democrats were outperforming Biden: In a head-to-head matchup for Michigan's open U.S. Senate seat, it had U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin, D-Holly, who is considered by many observers the front-runner for the Democratic nomination, leading the Republican front-runner, former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, of Brighton, 43%-40%, with 17% undecided.
But those numbers still were within the margin of error in a state where no Republican has won a U.S. Senate seat in 30 years.
There also were indications that efforts by the Biden campaign to rile up voters by trying to tie Trump to the so-called Project 2025 — a vision of a conservative upending of the federal bureaucracy written by some of his former aides and advisers — hadn't had much success yet in Michigan: 57% said they knew little about it or hadn't heard of it before the pollster asked them about it; 27% said they were somewhat familiar with it; and just 15% said they were very familiar with it.
After the pollster read a description of some of Project 2025's recommendations, including reducing taxes on corporations, eliminating the Affordable Care Act and giving the White House more control of Justice Department decisions, 65% of respondents said they disapproved of the program compared with just 25% who approved.
Trump and his campaign, however, have repeatedly said that he has not endorsed Project 2025 or said he intends to implement its recommendations if reelected.
Meanwhile, 55% of voters also said they disapproved of the Biden administration's push to have automakers produce and sell more electric vehicles, an effort Republicans have labeled a "mandate." Forty percent said they approve of the push and 5% were undecided.
On the issues, 31% cited inflation and the high cost of living as their biggest concern and 17% noted immigration along the Southern border; both are topics Trump and the Republicans have used against Biden and the Democrats. And when it comes to one of the biggest issues of the 2022 midterm elections, abortion, 12% said protecting abortion rights was most important. Democrats have continued to hammer Trump and the rest of the GOP this election cycle on the issue of reproductive rights, but it may have less of an effect this year in Michigan after voters decided overwhelmingly to add reproductive rights' protections to the state constitution two years ago after the U.S. Supreme Court reversed the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision.
Men, white voters largely supporting Trump
The poll found that among Black voters overall, Biden had a commanding lead of 64% to 11% for Trump in the five-way race, with 15% going to third party candidates and 10% undecided, though that was less support than exit polls showed him getting from that voting bloc four years ago. Among the larger number of white voters, 48% supported Trump, compared with just 33% for Biden and 10% going to third-party candidates.
Among different age groups, Biden only won with one: voters 65 and older, 50% of whom supported him compared with 41% for Trump, 3% for third party candidates and 6% undecided or refusing to answer. Younger voters age 18-34, who are considered an important bloc for Democrats, were split 33%-33% between Biden and Trump, with 22% selecting a third-party option.
Male voters overwhelmingly supported Trump, 47% to 31% for Biden. While women favored Biden, 41%-39%, it wasn't nearly strong enough to overwhelm men's support for the Republican nominee.
Trump led with 84% support among Republicans, just 3% of whom said they would support Biden. Among Democrats, 77% supported Biden compared with 4% who backed Trump. The key bloc of self-described independents split 33% for Trump, 27% for Biden and 22% for a third-party candidate, with much of that support — 14% — going to Kennedy. Another 14% were undecided, refused to answer or said they would vote for someone else or not at all.
There also continued to be a education gap among voter choices: Among voters with a high school degree or less, 51% preferred Trump compared with 29% for Biden, 14% for third-party candidates and 6% undecided. Voters with some college or post-high school education favored Trump over Biden 44%-31%. Voters with college degrees supported Biden 43% to 38% for Trump, with 9% going to third-party candidates.
Contact Todd Spangler: tspangler@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter@tsspangler.